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Performance evaluation of water resources systems using system dynamics approach: Application to the Aras River Basin, Iran

Jood, M. S ; Sharif University of Technology | 2012

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  1. Type of Document: Article
  2. DOI: 10.1061/9780784412312.239
  3. Publisher: ASCE , 2012
  4. Abstract:
  5. System Dynamics approach is a powerful tool in water resources systems simulation for evaluating proposed plans and policies in development projects. In Aras River basin, existing water resources do not suffice increasing demand in the near future, thus construction of new reservoirs is under study. In this study, system dynamics approach is used to simulate the water resources system of Darehrood sub basin located in eastern part of Aras River basin. Performance indices are used to evaluate the alternative plans and policies.. Reliability, resiliency and vulnerability, the three performance indices used in study, are estimated using maximum value and mean value estimators mentioned in the literature. The results show that although using the maximum value estimators have been proposed in some studies, mean value estimators provide more useful information since their estimates reflect the performance of the system in all the states. Using these indices together with the results of simulation model, can provide managers and decision makers with useful knowledge of system performance and help them to select good alternatives
  6. Keywords:
  7. Performance indices ; Resiliency ; Simulation ; System Dynamics ; Vulnerability ; Water resources systems ; Computer simulation ; Estimation ; Optimal systems ; Reliability ; System theory ; Watersheds ; Water resources
  8. Source: World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2012: Crossing Boundaries, Proceedings of the 2012 Congress ; 2012 , Pages 2367-2377 ; 9780784412312 (ISBN)
  9. URL: http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/9780784412312.239