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A system dynamics model for improving flood control operation policies

Shafiee Jood, M ; Sharif University of Technology | 2012

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  1. Type of Document: Article
  2. DOI: 10.1061/9780784412312.098
  3. Publisher: ASCE , 2012
  4. Abstract:
  5. The inherent complexities of multi-reservoir flood control systems and their operation conditions along with the improvements of optimization methods have led to a positive trend on better development of these models. This trend tends to provide the operators of these systems with more practical solutions. Although optimization models can provide appropriate solutions for operation of multi-reservoir systems, the exact implementation of these solutions in real world is not guaranteed. This arises mainly due to high level risk of flood situation, real time operation constraints, high level uncertainties of inflows that usually are overlooked in optimization models, and so on. These problems in implementing the operation policies lead the water resources managers to more flexible tools such as simulation models as complement of optimization models for developing more practical solutions. A simulation model based on system dynamics approach is proposed in this study because of its high potential for helping out improving these conditions. The Karkheh multi-reservoir flood control system which consists of six large multi-purpose reservoirs is selected as the case study, and its operation polices that recently developed by a new multi-purpose MILP optimization are examined in this study. The initial results of the study show high performance of the proposed model which is able to enhance the initial solutions of optimization model. Also, some sensitivity analysis on the uncertainties of river basins inflows are done that is a unique capability of simulation models in analysis of uncertainties
  6. Keywords:
  7. Karkheh flood control system ; Operation policy ; System dynamics simulation ; Control operations ; Flexible tool ; High potential ; Inherent complexity ; Initial solution ; Multi-purpose ; Multi-reservoir systems ; Operation conditions ; Optimization method ; Optimization models ; Practical solutions ; Real-time operation ; River basins ; Simulation model ; System dynamics approach ; System dynamics model ; Computer simulation ; Flood control ; Mathematical models ; System theory ; Uncertainty analysis ; Water resources
  8. Source: World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2012: Crossing Boundaries, Proceedings of the 2012 Congress ; 2012 , Pages 962-972 ; 9780784412312 (ISBN)
  9. URL: http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/9780784412312.098