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Development of a dynamic long-term water allocation model for agriculture and industry water demands

Karimi, A ; Sharif University of Technology | 2010

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  1. Type of Document: Article
  2. DOI: 10.1007/s11269-009-9521-3
  3. Publisher: 2010
  4. Abstract:
  5. Demands growth and water resources limitation, enforce water sector policy makers to integrate water supply-demand interactions in a coherent framework for efficient water allocation. Water supply-demand interaction, changes long-term trend of water demands, which in turn has a substantial influence on water allocation. Researches on water allocation modeling lack adequate projection of relationship between water supply and demand. Socio-economic factors representing water allocation stakeholders' benefits, account for the main share of water supply-demand interaction. Identification, representation and consideration of these factors in a water allocation model, is the main limitation of researches on this issue. In this paper a new long-term water allocation model at basin level is developed and introduced. This model considers water supply-demand interaction in agriculture and industry sectors, by use of socio-economic parameters; such as, production, cultivated land area, revenue and employment. The model main advantage is its ability to reflect the interrelationship between essential hydro-system and supply-demand components. It can explore both socio-economic and water allocation consequences of various policy choices. The model is used to assess two different development policies at basin level. The first one is fourth 5-year development plan of Iran, which fixes predefined growth rate for different sectors. The second one assumes the present state continues up to the end of planning horizon. A typical multi-reservoir water basin is modeled and analyzed for two policies. Indices that summarize long-term state of hydro-system and stakeholders are defined and used in policies assessment and decision making. Results of these assessments show fourth 5-year development policy provides opportunities for substantial improvement in water allocation and stakeholders' benefits
  6. Keywords:
  7. Employment ; Socio-economic ; Water resources ; Coherent frameworks ; Consumption efficiency ; Cultivated lands ; Development plans ; Development policies ; Hydro-system ; Industry sectors ; Long-term trend ; Multi-reservoir ; Planning horizons ; Policy choices ; Policy makers ; Reservoir water ; Socio-economic factor ; Socio-economics ; Supply-demand ; Water allocation models ; Water allocations ; Water demand ; Water sector ; Agriculture ; Decision making ; Economics ; Population statistics ; Reservoirs (water) ; Water supply systems ; Modeling ; Resource allocation ; Socioeconomic impact ; Stakeholder ; Water planning ; Water resource ; Water supply ; Iran
  8. Source: Water Resources Management ; Volume 24, Issue 9 , 2010 , Pages 1717-1746 ; 09204741 (ISSN)
  9. URL: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11269-009-9521-3