Sharif Digital Repository

The Burr III distribution properly approximates many familiar distributions such as Normal, Lognormal, Gamma, Weibull, and Exponential distributions. It plays an important role in reliability engineering, statistical quality control, and risk analysis models. The Burr III distribution has four parameters known as location, scale, and two shape parameters. The estimation process of these parameters is controversial. Although the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is understood as a straightforward method in parameters estimation, using MLE to estimate the Burr III parameters leads to maximize a complicated function with four unknown variables, where using a conventional optimization such as... 

Fault tree analysis is one of the key approaches used to analyze the reliability of critical systems. Fault trees are usually analyzed using mathematical approaches or Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). This paper presents a Fuzzy-Monte Carlo simulation (FMCS) approach in which the uncertain data is generated by the MCS approach. The FMCS approach is applied to the Weibull probability distribution which is widely been used in the analysis of reliability, availability, maintainability and safety (RAMS). Using the fuzzy arithmetic, times to failure (TTF) of the components are generated. These results are processed by a kind of fault tree (e.g. time-to-failure tree) to produce the TTF of the whole... 

Order statistic (OS) CFAR processor is a powerful detector, but similar to many other CFAR detectors, suffers from clutter edge as well as interfering targets. To overcome these problems, two derivations of this detector have been developed. These are order statistic greatest of (OSGO) and order statistic smallest of (OSSO) CFAR processors. The cost, paid for this improvement, is a considerable decrease in detection probability for homogenous Weibull clutter. Furthermore, a substantial performance degradation of OSGO in interfering target (high target masking effect) and an excessive false alarm of OSSO in clutter edge, also, occur. This behavior is a result of non-soft rules used in these... 

In Distributed detection systems, restricting the output of the local decision to one bit certainly implies a substantial information loss. In this paper, we consider the fuzzy detection, which uses a function called membership function for mapping the observation space of each local detector to a value between 0 and 1, indicating the degree of assurance about presence or absence of a signal. In this case, we examine the problem of distributed Maximum Likelihood (ML) and Order Statistic (OS) constant false alarm rate (CFAR) detections using fuzzy fusion rules such as "Algebraic Product"(AP), "Algebraic Sum"(AS), "Union"(Un) and " Intersection"(IS) in the fusion centre. For the Weibull... 

Normally, random number generators produce uniformly distributed values. In some cases, such as Monte Carlo simulation, non-uniform distributed values (e.g. exponential distribution and weibull distribution) are required. One way of producing non-uniformly distributed random values, is to add an extra hardware to a uniformly distributed random number generator. In this paper, three different methods are studied to generate exponential random values. These methods are based oft three algorithm of logarithm evaluating namely: CORDIC, Interpolation and Piecewise lookup table. The study is based on an experimental evaluation of the above methods, using FPGA chips, to compare the speed, hardware... 

This paper proposes a hybrid possibilistic-probabilistic evaluation tool for analyzing the effect of uncertain power production of distributed generations (DGs) on active losses of distribution networks. The considered DG technologies are gas and wind turbines. This tool is useful for distribution network operators (DNOs) when they are faced with uncertainties which some of them can be modeled probabilistically and some of them are described possibilistically. The generation pattern of DG units changes the flow of lines and this will cause change of active losses which DNO is responsible for compensating it. This pattern is highly dependent on DG technology and also on decisions of DG... 

CFAR detector is an essential component in any radar system. This component ensures that the system may not be overloaded by false targets. In the past it was common to model the interfering signal (clutter) in a radar system with a Rayleigh distribution. But as a progress in the radar systems, nowadays the Rayleigh model is insufficient, therefore some other models such as Weibull and lognormal are proposed and CFAR detectors for these models are developed through the papers. But majority of these proposed CFAR detectors are derived for single pulse operation. When more than one pulse exists, it is proposed to use binary integrator to improve the performance. It is mentioned through... 

We consider the problem of determining throughput of one-hop unicast transmissions in ad hoc wireless networks. We consider an interference-limited scenario in which wireless links between different nodes are modeled by independently and identically distributed random variables. The main decoding challenge for receive nodes is due to interference of nonintended concurrent transmissions. In this scenario, we consider a heuristic one-hop transmission strategy based on activating source-destination pairs with strongest direct links and forcing other pairs to be silent. We present a closed-form expression for throughput scaling of such strategy, for a completely general channel power... 

Wind speed is the most important parameter in the design and study of wind energy conversion systems. The weibull distribution is commonly used for wind energy analysis as it can represent the wind variations with an acceptable level of accuracy. In this study, the wind data for 11 cities in Iran have been analysed over a period of one year. The Goodness of fit test is used for testing data fit to weibull distribution. The results show that this data fit to weibull function very well. The scale and shape factors are two parameters of the weibull distribution that depend on the area under study. The kinds of numerical methods commonly used for estimating weibull parameters are reviewed. Their... 

The capacity factor is an important wind turbine parameter which is ratio of average output electrical power to rated electrical power of the wind turbine. Another main factor, the AEP, the annual energy production, can be determined using wind characteristics and wind turbine performance. Lower rated power may lead to higher capacity factor but will reduce the AEP. Therefore, it is important to consider simultaneously both the capacity factor and the AEP in design or selecting a wind turbine. In this work, a new semi-empirical secondary capacity factor is introduced for determining a rated wind speed at which yearly energy and hydrogen production obtain a maximum value. This capacity factor... 

In the literature of model selection, Vuong’s test and Akaike information criterion aim to find the best statistical model. Both of them are related to the expectation of the log-likelihood function of the rival models, but they are not sensitive to the small difference between rival models. The goal of this study is to develop a simple model selection approach which does not assume a true distribution for data. We have introduced a nonparametric tracking interval in the context of model selection. We have shown that this interval is compatibale with the known Vuong’s test results, but here we let the magnitude of the data enhance the performance of statistical inference. Simulation study... 

In the literature of model selection, Vuong’s test and Akaike information criterion aim to find the best statistical model. Both of them are related to the expectation of the log-likelihood function of the rival models, but they are not sensitive to the small difference between rival models. The goal of this study is to develop a simple model selection approach which does not assume a true distribution for data. We have introduced a nonparametric tracking interval in the context of model selection. We have shown that this interval is compatibale with the known Vuong’s test results, but here we let the magnitude of the data enhance the performance of statistical inference. Simulation study... 

The redundancy allocation problem (RAP) is a useful method to enhance system reliability. In most works involving RAP, failure rates of the system components are assumed to follow either exponential or k-Erlang distributions. In real world problems however, many systems have components with increasing failure rates. This indicates that as time passes by, the failure rates of the system components increase in comparison to their initial failure rates. In this paper, the redundancy allocation problem of a series-parallel system with components having an increasing failure rate based on Weibull distribution is investigated. An optimization method via simulation is proposed for modeling and a... 

This paper considers the problem of constant false alarm rate (CFAR) detection of radar targets using multiple observations. In the Gaussian clutter scenario, the structure of the optimum (uniformly most powerful) CFAR detector is rather simple, but when the clutter is heavy-tailed, that is non-Gaussian distributed, the derivation of the optimal detector becomes infeasible. For this latter relevant case, a new CFAR algorithm is porposed based on goodness-of-fit (GoF) tests. The performance of the proposed detector is numerically investigated through Monte Carlo simulations assuming heavy-tailed Weibull and Lognormal distributed clutter. Numerical results shown that, in heavy-tailed clutter...